Real Football Prediction – Way To Predict Football Match Results


Real Football Prediction – Way To Predict Football Match Results

Real football prediction is a statistical method which sports betting world uses to predict the results of football matches by statistical analysis. Real football prediction aims to outplay the predictions of the bookmakers.

The bookmakers use prediction to set the odds on the probable results of the football matches. Football ranking systems provide a rank to each team depending on their recent match results. Therefore, the strongest team gets the highest rank. Betting world uses the ranking as the most extensive statistical approach to prediction. Usually, they predict the match outcome by comparing the opposition team’s ranks. There are various different football ranking systems. For instance, one can see FIFA World Rankings or World Football Elo Ratings.

However, there are certain disadvantages of prediction basing on ranking system. A team’s rankings do not differ between their offensive and defensive strength. Ranks are averages, so changes of skills in a team do not impact the rankings. Moreover, the main objective of ranking system is to sort the teams according to their strength. Prediction is the least concern here.

Rating System – Another Approach To Real Football Prediction

The rating system provides a team with a continuous strength indicator rather than only referring to the team order. Furthermore, not only a team but offensive and defensive strengths and each player can receive a rating. To clarify, it provides a quantitative measure of the superiority of a team over the opponent. World Football Elo Ratings is one such rating system for men’s national association football teams. The website eloratings.net publishes this rating.

Real Football Prediction – Way To Predict Football Match Results

Real Football Prediction – Way To Predict Football Match Results

There is a lot of analysis and comparison, which takes place to determine the superiority of a team. In particular, the rating system calculates a point difference for an upcoming match. It subtracts a point rating for the away side from a point rating for the home team. The system uses either league points, league positions, or the goal difference (conceded vs. scored). Real football prediction happens when they have calculated the ratings and estimated the chances of the outcomes.

History Of Football Predictions

Publications on statistical analysis for football match prediction began in the 90s. However, Moroney M. J. published the first model on the subject much earlier, in 1956. As per the analysis, “Poisson Distribution” and “Negative Binomial Distribution” had sufficient contribution to the real football prediction. Negative Binomial Distribution helped in analyzing the series of the ball passing between the players. Reep and Benjamin improved the method in 1971. In 1974, Hill I. D. indicated that football match results are just not a matter of chance. One can predict the outcome to a certain extent.

Michael Maher provided the first model of a different kind in 1982. It was about predicting the results of matches between teams with a different skillset. As per this model, Poisson Distribution drew the goals which the opponents score during the match. The difference between offensive and defensive skills defined the parameters of this model.

Real Football Prediction – Way To Predict Football Match Results

Real Football Prediction – Way To Predict Football Match Results

Football Prediction Methods

One can classify the prediction methods depending on the tournament types and performance of the method. The methods vary between the round-robin tournament and knockout contests. Besides Poisson Distribution, the Grading system is another method for those looking to model their odds using the statistics. In a Rule-Based method, you can use the rules to decide or restrict the bet you place.

Subscribe to our monthly Newsletter
Subscribe to our monthly Newsletter